global monetary policy

Global Monetary Policy Review for February 2017

Posted on

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Monetary Policy of #India #USA #Mexico #Colombia

Brought to you by #Jhunjhunwalasfinance

Advertisements

Global Monetary Policy Review for December 2016

Posted on

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

Monetary Policy of #Japan #USA #India and #Brazil

Brought to you by #Jhunjhunwalsfinance

Colombia Central Bank holds Interest rates in the first week of March

Posted on

2nd March 2014

Colombia’s central bank held its policy intervention rate steady at 3.25 percent, saying interest rates were appropriate because they are stimulating spending while inflation is converging toward the bank’s 3.0 percent target.
    The Central Bank of Colombia, which has held rates steady since April 2013 after cutting them by 100 basis points in the first three months of last year, said economic growth in 2014 is still projected to expand by 4.3 percent after likely growth of 4.1 percent in 2013 within a range of 3.7-4.3 percent.
    For the fourth quarter, the central bank’s staff is projecting growth of 4.6 percent, up from 4.5 percent forecast by the central bank in January, the bank said after a meeting of its board on Friday.
    Investment is increasing by the largest amount while household consumption is growing at its historical average rate. Exports are also accelerating but at a rate that is lower than imports.
    Colombia’s Gross Domestic Product expanded by 1.10 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter for annual growth of 5.1 percent, the fastest rate in six quarters and up from 3.9 percent in the second quarter.
   Colombia’s inflation rate rose to 2.13 percent in January, within the central bank’s 2.0 to 4.0 percent target range with core inflation at 2.55 percent. Inflation expectations one year from now are around 3.0 percent.
    The central bank added that the rate of credit growth slowed in January but was still higher than the growth of nominal GDP.
    Last month the central bank’s governor, Jose Dario Uribe, said inflation was likely to rise to between 2.5 and 3.0 percent this year after falling to 1.94 percent in 2013, helped by a depreciation in the peso against the U.S. dollar that is raising import prices

Colombia holds rate, inflation seen moving toward target – Central Bank News.

Philippines Central Bank holds Interest rates, says inflation is manageable

Posted on Updated on

6th February 2014

The Philippines’ central bank held its policy rates steady, as widely expected, describing inflation as “manageable” and forecast to remain within the central bank’s target ranges this year and 2015.
    The Central Bank of the Philippines (BSP), which has maintained its overnight borrowing rate at 3.50 percent since October 2012, acknowledged that the balance of risks to the inflation outlook remains “slightly weighted towards the upside” given the pending petitions for higher utility rates and the possible rise in food prices.
    Inflation in the Philippines has been accelerating the last five months, hitting 4.2 percent in January, the highest since November 2011 mainly due to higher food prices from adverse weather. The central bank targets inflation at a midpoint of 4.0 percent in 2014, plus/minus 1 percentage points, while in 2015 the inflation target is 3.0 percent, plus/minus 1 percentage point.
    The decision by the BSP’s monetary board was expected following a text message sent by the governor, Amando Tetangco, to reporters on Wednesday in which he said the bank still had room to keep rates steady but that room may be narrowing due to the risks to the inflation outlook.
    In addition to the impact on food prices from Typoon Haiyan, import prices are also likely to be under pressure from the decline in the Philippine peso.
    The peso lost 7.5 percent against the U.S. dollar in 2013 and has lost a further 1.7 percent so far this year, trading at 45.18 to the dollar today.
    The BSP said the global economy had become more challenging due to heightened financial market uncertainty following the adjustment of monetary policy in the United States and concern over the sustainability of growth in emerging market economies.
    But the BSP said domestic activity is likely to stay firm, with buoyant demand, strong fiscal and external positions, as well as favorable consumer and business sentiment supporting the economy.
    The Philippines’ Gross Domestic Product expanded by 1.5 percent in the fourth quarter of last year from the third quarter for annual growth of 6.5 percent, down from 6.9 percent.

Philippines holds rates, says inflation is manageable – Central Bank News.

South Africa Central Bank raises Interest rates 50 bps in the last week of January

Posted on

29th January 2014

South Africa’s central bank raised its benchmark repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.50 percent, surprising economists who had expected rates to remain stable, and said further moves would depend on economic data but the bank would “not hesitate to act” to keep inflation under control.
   Despite the rate rise, Gill Marcus, governor of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), said she  still viewed the current monetary policy stance as accommodative and the depreciation of the South African rand currency so far could improve the country’s international competitiveness, provided that it is not eroded through higher wages and other costs.
    South Africa’s rand has already been hard hit by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s withdrawal of quantitative easing and if sustained, further depreciation “will raise significantly the risk to the inflation outlook,” despite the lack of domestic demand pressures, Marcus said in a statement.
    Reflecting the impact of the depreciation of the rand on the cost of imported prices, the central bank raised its 2014 inflation forecast by 0.6 percentage points to 6.3 percent and by another 0.6 points to 6.0 percent in 2015, with inflation expected to average 5.9 percent in the final quarter of next year.
   Headline inflation is forecast to breach the central bank’s upper limit in the second quarter of this year, reaching a peak of 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter before easing to 6.0 percent in the second quarter of 2015. The central bank targets inflation in a range of 3-6 percent.

    South Africa’s inflation rate was only marginally higher at 5.4 percent in December compared with November’s 5.3 percent – in 2013 inflation averaged 5.7 percent – but the central bank said this did not reflect the risks from the depreciating rand as food prices had contributed to the downside surprises in inflation in the past two months and is not expected to persist.
    While the pass-through of the lower exchange rate has been muted so far, Marcus said domestic petrol prices have immediately reacted with prices up by 55 cents per litre in December and January and a further rise of over 30 cents per litre can be expected in February.
    “Sustained upside pressure from petrol prices on inflation can therefore be anticipated should the rand continue to depreciate,” Marcus said.
    The rand already fell 19 percent against the U.S. dollar last year as the Fed prepared to reduce its asset purchases and was hit last week by a volatility in emerging market currencies after concern over a slowdown in China, falling to 11.14 to the U.S. dollar earlier today, down almost 6 percent in 2014.
    In the last two months of 2013, net sales of South African bonds and stocks by non-residents amounted to 21.0 billion rand and 19.4 billion, reversing inflows during the earlier part of the year for net purchase of bonds and stocks in 2013 by non-residents of only 1.3 billion compared with net purchases of 85.2 billion in 2012.
    Year-to-date, net sales of equities and bonds have totaled 19.3 billion rand, Marcus said.
    Although the Fed’s gradual withdrawal of extraordinary accommodative policy signals an improving U.S. economy, and the outlook for the UK economy is also improving, Marcus said this didn’t mean that the global financial crises was over, merely that “we are now entering a phase of the crises that is creating new challenges for emerging market economies.”
    The combination of sharply depreciating currencies, capital outflows, slowing growth, rising inflation, current account and/or fiscal deficits and deteriorating confidence is posing policy challenges and difficult trade-offs for many emerging markets, she said.
    Marcus said the central bank carefully considered its own response to these challenges, weighing significant upside risks to inflation against the weak outlook for growth, with capital outflows and the current account deficit exacerbating the difficulties.
    “Exchange rate pressures are expect to intensify as markets adjust to the new pattern of global capital flows,” Marcus said, as the process of normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies spills over to South Africa.
   The outlook for South Africa’s economy is subdued due to low business confidence and SARB cut its growth forecast for 2014 to 2.8 percent, from 3.0 percent, and to 3.3 percent for 2015 from a previous 3.4 percent.
    Growth in the fourth quarter is estimated to have improved from third quarter’s 0.7 percent expansion and for the entire 2013 year, SARB estimated growth of around 1.9 percent.
    A trade surplus of 800 million rand in November may signify a narrowing of the current account deficit in the fourth quarter, but Marcus said it was still too early to assess whether this indicated a trend. The duration of strikes in the mining sector, and the resulting decline in exports, is likely to impede a further improvement in the current account deficit.
    In the third quarter of last year, South Africa’s current account deficit amounted to 23.27 billion rand, or 6.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product – the biggest gap in five years – and up from 5.9 percent in the second quarter

South Africa raises rate 50 bps, says won’t hesitate to act – Central Bank News.

Global Central Bank Monetary Policy Weekly Review – for weekended 11th May 2013

Posted on

Monetary Policy Week in Review – May 11, 2013: 8 banks cut rates by 550 bps as BOJ easing ripples through world – Central Bank News.

Last week 16 central banks took policy decisions with a record eight banks cutting rates by a total of 550 basis points as the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary easing looks to become a watershed event in global monetary policy by opening a new front in the currency wars.
Only weeks after the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bank governors agreed that they  “will refrain from competitive devaluation,” Australia and Korea – two of the G20 members – surprised markets by cutting interest rates.
Observers questioned the motives behind the two rate cuts as the global economic outlook had not drastically deteriorated.
It is already clear that the ripples from the BOJ’s easing is upsetting global balances, with a range of competitors reacting to the 17 percent plunge in the value of the yen to the U.S. dollar so far this year.
The only substantial change in the policy statements from the Reserve Bank of Australia(RBA) and the Bank of Korea (BOK) from April to May was the reference to foreign exchange while their observations about growth were largely unchanged.
The other six central banks that cut rates this week did not refer to exchange rates but said a lack of inflationary pressure had given them space to boost growth.
But the RBA said the exchange rate of the Australian dollar had been “little changed at a historically high level” while the BOK said Korea’s output gap would continue for a considerable time due to slow global growth, “the influence of the Japanese yen weakening” and geopolitical risks.
To be sure, the global economy has entered a soft patch. But that is exactly the point of international agreements. When times get tough, policy makers are supposed to consider the international ramifications of their actions and look to the common good.
The official reaction of the international community, both the G20 and the Group of Seven, to the BOJ’s new and more aggressive quantitative easing is that it benefits everyone because it strengthens global growth by supporting Japan’s domestic demand and stopping deflation.
Meanwhile, individual countries are adjusting their policies to the impact of the lower yen and the inflow of excess funds to their markets from the BOJ’s easing. Data showed that Japanese investors were net buyers of foreign bonds in recent weeks.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) intervened in foreign exchange markets for the first time since 2007 to weaken its dollar. The move was hardly a surprise after the RBNZ last month pinned some of the blame for the currency’s appreciation on Japan’s “substantial quantitative easing programme, ” which is making life hard for its exporters.
Thailand has been debating how to tackle the rise in its baht currency and capital inflows with the Bank of Thailand (BoT) on Monday meeting with government and private sector representatives to discuss a response.
The Thai finance minister has been vocal in his criticism of the BOT, saying it should take the strength of the currency into account when deciding on policy and not just inflation. So far the Thai central bank has resisted pressure and kept rates unchanged, arguing the inflows are due to investors’ confidence in the Thai economy and rate cuts would not make much of a difference.

Apart from Australia and Korea, the central banks of Kenya, BelarusPolandGeorgiaSri Lanka and Vietnam also cut rates this week. Seven banks held rates steady: MalawiNorway, the United KingdomMalaysia, PeruEgypt and Mozambique.
Gambia was the only central bank to raise rates this week. Four percent of all rate decisions this year have favored rate hikes, a largely stable ratio. It was Gambia’s first rate rise this year, reversing two rate cuts in 2012, with the bank citing accelerating inflation, partly due to currency depreciation.

 Since the BOJ announced its “new phase of monetary easing” on April 4, central banks’ policy rates have tumbled by a cumulative 1,235 basis points, accounting for 58 percent of the total decline in rates so far this year.
Although the decline in policy rates accelerated this week, the total fall this year only amounts to 2,126 basis points, still a far cry from cuts totaling 6,475 in 2012 and 7,517 in 2011. However, the fall in rates does not reflect the true extent of global monetary easing as it doesn’t take into account quantitative easing measures.
Through the first 19 weeks of this year, 24 percent of 186 policy decisions taken by the 90 central banks followed by Central Bank News have lead to rate cuts, a sharp increase from 20 percent after the first 18 weeks.
It was the highest number of rate cuts in one week so far this year, pushing down the average Global Monetary Policy Rate (GMPR) to 5.66 percent from 5.70 percent at the end of April and 6.2 percent at the end of 2012.
The majority of this year’s policy decisions still favor unchanged rates, but the trend is declining. At the end of this week, 72 percent of all decisions this year were to keep rates steady, down from 77 percent after the first 14 weeks of this year and 75 percent after the first 16 weeks.

LAST WEEK’S (WEEK 19) MONETARY POLICY DECISIONS:

COUNTRY MSCI     NEW RATE         OLD RATE        1 YEAR AGO
KENYA FM 8.50% 9.50% 18.00%
AUSTRALIA DM 2.75% 3.00% 3.75%
BELARUS 25.00% 27.00% 34.00%
GAMBIA 14.00% 12.00% 13.00%
MALAWI 25.00% 25.00% 16.00%
NORWAY DM 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
POLAND EM 3.00% 3.25% 4.75%
GEORGIA 4.25% 4.50% 6.00%
SOUTH KOREA EM 2.50% 2.75% 3.25%
UNITED KINGDOM DM 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
MALAYSIA EM 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
PERU EM 4.25% 4.25% 4.25%
EGYPT EM 9.75% 9.75% 9.25%
SRI LANKA FM 7.00% 7.50% 7.75%
VIETNAM FM 7.00% 8.00% 12.00%
MOZAMBIQUE 9.50% 9.50% 13.50%

 NEXT WEEK  (Week 20) features five central bank policy decisions, including Serbia, Indonesia, Iceland, Latvia and Turkey.
On Monday Thailand’s finance minister meets with the Bank of Thailand’s monetary policy committee, government officials and the private sector to discuss the rise in the Thai baht. Markets are speculating the meeting will result in a rate cut. The next scheduled policy meeting by Bank of Thailand is on May 29.

COUNTRY MSCI              DATE               RATE        1 YEAR AGO
SERBIA FM 13-May 11.75% 9.50%
THAILAND EM 13-May 2.75% 3.00%
INDONESIA EM 14-May 5.75% 5.75%
ICELAND 15-May 6.00% 5.50%
LATVIA 16-May 2.50% 3.50%
TURKEY EM 16-May 5.00% 5.75%

www.CentralBankNews.info

Namibia’s Central Bank held its benchmark Repo rate steady at 5.50%

Posted on

Namibia holds rate steady to counter slow global growth – Central Bank News.

Namibia’s central bank held its benchmark repo rate steady at 5.50 percent, repeating that interest rates need to remain low to “support the economy and mitigate, as far as possible, the impact of endured slow growth in many our trading partners.”
    The Bank of Namibia, which has held rates steady this year after cutting by 50 basis points last year, said the country’s economy was resilient and growth this year is forecast at 4.4 percent, down from an estimated 5.0 percent in 2012.
    “Despite ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, domestic growth continues to be relatively strong, while inflationary pressures are low,” the Bank of Namibia said, adding developments were largely in line with its assessment from February.
    So far this year, growth has been driven by higher output from mining, agriculture, manufacturing and construction, while wholesale and retail has contributed less.

    A recent decline in international commodity prices is of a concern as this impacts the mining industry, the bank said, adding that the government budget will support domestic production and consumption through relatively high levels of expenditure and tax relief.

    Namibia’s inflation rate rose to a “manageable” 6.3 percent in March from 6.21 in February, with no changes anticipated in the short to medium-term, the bank said.
    Credit growth also remains robust, with credit to the business sector the main driver while credit to individuals rose less. The fiscal position of the government has improved, allowing for the build-up of a cash balances with the central bank.
    Foreign reserves are still enough to cover three months of imports and the currency peg, the bank said.
    At its previous meeting in February, the Bank of Namibia also forecast that the economy would grow by 4.4 percent this year and it was keeping its policy rate low to mitigate the impact of slow growth in many trading partners.

    www.CentralBankNews.info