Month: July 2013
Peru’s central bank maintained its policy rate at 4.25 percent as inflation remains within the bank’s target range and economic growth is close to the “economy’s potential level of growth amid international financial uncertainty.”
The Central Bank of Peru (BCRP), which has held rates steady since April 2011, also made its reserve requirements regime more flexible and said that “if necessary, the Board will adopt additional measures to make the regime of requirement reserves more flexible in order to promote a more orderly evolution of credit.”
Under the new measures, the central bank said that a financial institution’s long-term liabilities that are “not subject to reserve requirements was raised in May to 2.3 times the effective equity with the aim of promoting increased long-term financing in soles, and a maximum limit of 20 percent was established in June for the mean rate of reserve requirements in soles in order to reduce the dispersion of required reserves in the different financial entities and promote intermediation in soles, releasing in this way 500 million soles.”
Peru’s economy has been weakening in recent months due to weaker mining and last month the central bank lowered its 2013 growth forecast to 6.1 percent from a previous forecast of 6.3 percent. In 2012 the economy expanded by 6.3 percent.
In the first quarter, Peru’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 2.1 percent from the previous quarter for annual growth of 4.8 percent, down from 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
“Current and advanced indicators of activity show that the growth of the Peruvian economy is
close to its long-term sustainable level of growth, even though the indicators associated with
the external market still show a weak performance that affects the prices and volumes of
export products,” the central bank said.
Inflation in Peru rose to 2.77 percent in June from 2.47 percent in May due to higher prices of some foods and fuels.
The central bank, which targets inflation of 1.0 to 2.0 percent, said it expects headline inflation to converge to the center of its target range in the next months due to better food supply, economic growth close to the economy’s potential and to inflation expectations that are anchored to the bank’s target range.
for more details log on to Central Bank of Peru website : http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/home.html
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Serbia’s central bank left its key policy rate steady at 11.0 percent, saying inflation continues to decline due to lower demand and repeated that it should return to the central bank’s target range by October.
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS), which embarked on a monetary tightening campaign last year to hold down inflation before cutting rates by a total of 75 basis points in May and June, said a good agricultural season and global market prices should lower domestic food prices and a deceleration in credit activity and lower growth in wages “confirm that low aggregate demand will continue to be the key disinflationary factor in the period ahead.”
Serbia’s inflation rate eased to 9.9 percent in May from 11.4 percent the previous month, continuing the decline since hitting a recent high of 12.9 percent in October last year. The central bank targets inflation of 4.0 percent, plus/minus 1.5 percentage points.
Like other emerging markets, Serbia’s markets have been hit by an outflow of funds from the Federal Reserve’s plan to taper quantitative easing later this year, and the central bank last month intervened in foreign exchange markets several times to slow the decline in the dinar.
From the beginning of May through July 9, the dinar has depreciated just over 3 percent against the euro, quoted at 114 to the euro earlier today.
“Unfavourable movements in international financial markets have led to higher investor risk aversion, which has sparked an increase in risk premia and depreciation pressures almost throughout the region,” the central bank said.
The central bank again appealed to the government to reduce its deficit further. Last month the government said it would cut spending to reduce this year’s deficit to 4.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product after the International Monetary Fund warned is could reach 8 percent.
“The Executive Board holds that the effects of additional fiscal consolidation measures and the implementation of structural reforms will contribute to further subsiding of inflationary pressures and aggregate demand and will help increase investor interest in the Serbian economy.”
Serbia leaves rate on hold as inflation continues to fall – Central Bank News
For more details log on to National Bank of Serbia website : http://www.nbs.rs/internet/english/
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Malaysia’s central bank held its overnight policy rate (OPR) steady at 3.0 percent, as expected, but said the weak global economy may impact the country’s economic growth though domestic demand continues to support growth.
The Central Bank of Malaysia, which has held rates steady since June 2011, said domestic demand in emerging economies remains a important source of growth for the global economy but the prolonged weakness in the “external environment has begun to affect domestic economic activity in these economies.”
“For the Malaysian economy, domestic demand has continued to support growth amid the continued moderation in external demand. The sustained weakness in the external sector may, however, affect the overall growth momentum,” the central bank, known as Bank Negara Malaysia, cautioned.
Malaysia’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 4.9 percent in the first quarter from the previous quarter for annual growth of 4.1 percent, down from 6.5 percent. The bank has forecast growth of 5-6 percent this year compared with 5.6 percent in 2012.
But the central bank said private consumption in Malaysia is still expected to remain steady, underpinned by higher incomes, while capital spending in domestic-oriented industries and infrastructure projects will support investment
Malaysia’s inflation rate rose slightly to 1.8 percent in May from 1.7 percent but the central bank said it should rise in the second half of the year due to domestic supply and cost factors.
“Pressures from global commodity prices are also likely to be contained given the moderate global growth prospects,” the central bank said.
for more details log on to Central Bank of Malaysia website : http://www.bnm.gov.my/
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The European Central Bank (ECB) said it will maintain an easy monetary policy stance for “as long as necessary” to boost economic growth and that it may even cut rates further.
The ECB, which earlier today held its benchmark refinancing rate steady at 0.5 percent, said the risks surrounding its economic outlook remain on the downside and the recent rise in global bond yields “may have the potential to negatively affect economic conditions.”
Low interest rates will help “provide support to a recovery in economic activity later in the year and in 2014,” ECB President Mario Draghi told a news conference, adding:
“The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time,” signaling that the central bank may cut rates if growth fails to improve.
Draghi’s admission that the recent rise in long-term interest rates may be harmful to growth in the 17 nations that share the euro follows a similar concern expressed by the Bank of England earlier today.
In addition to the “recent tightening in global money and financial market conditions and related uncertainties,” Draghi said other downside risks to growth include weaker-than-expected domestic and global demand and slow or insufficient structural reforms in the euro area.
Long-term interest rates have risen worldwide in recent weeks following the Federal Reserve’s decision on June 19 to start winding up its asset purchase program later this year as long as the economy continues to recover.
But while the U.S. economy is growing, the euro zone remains mired in recession and Draghi is clearly worried that budding signs of improvement could be snuffed out by higher market rates. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points in May to boost economic activity.
In the first quarter of this year, the euro zone’s Gross Domestic Product contracted by 0.3 percent from the previous quarter – it’s sixth quarterly contraction in a row. On an annual basis, the economy shrank by 1.1 percent, up from a 1.0 percent contraction in the fourth quarter.
Draghi said recent data had shown some improvement and exports should benefit from a gradual recovery in global demand later in the year and next year, with domestic demand supported by the ECB’s accommodative policy as recent gains in real income due to the fall in inflation.
“Overall, euro area economic activity should stabilise and recover in the course of the year, albeit at a subdued pace,” Draghi said, repeating his outlook from June when the ECB cut its growth forecast.
This year the ECB expects the euro zone economy to shrink by 0.6 percent, an improvement from 2012’s decline of 1.5 percent.
Inflation in the euro area rose to 1.6 percent in June, the third monthly rise since falling to a low of 1.2 percent in April. The ECB targets inflation of below but close to 2.0 percent.
The ECB expects inflation to remain subdued over the medium term, supporting the bank’s expectation to keep policy rates low along with weak economic growth.
“The risks to the outlook for price developments are expected to be still broadly balanced over the medium term, with upside risks relating to stronger than expected increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, as well as higher commodity prices, and downside risks stemming from weaker than expected economic activity,” Draghi said
for more details log on to European Central Bank website : http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html
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GDP Global growth for first Quarter Q1 at 2.1 vs 3.1 year ago or yoy
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